Tool 03 · Learning Lab · Claim calibration
Evidence Ladder
Write the claim you want to make. Then stop at the highest rung your evidence can actually support.
Designed to print or complete on screen. Completion is a reasoning exercise, not a validated assessment.
1. The claim we want to make2. The decision this claim will inform3. The evidence we actually have
Which rung does the evidence reach?
1 · ParticipationWe know who attended, completed or engaged. Supports: participation/output claims.
2 · Immediate performanceWe have evidence of what learners demonstrated at or near the end. Supports: demonstrated-learning claims at that time.
3 · ChangeWe have a relevant and interpretable starting point and later measure. Supports: observed-change claims, subject to design limitations.
4 · RetentionWe have comparable evidence collected after time has passed. Supports: claims about what remained demonstrable at that follow-up.
5 · ApplicationWe have evidence that the learner used the knowledge or skill in a relevant new or realistic context. Supports: bounded application claims.
6 · Causal effectThe design addresses plausible alternative explanations for the observed change. Supports: causal language only to the extent the design warrants it.
4. Highest rung our evidence reaches5. Rewrite the claim so it stays on that rung6. What evidence would we need to move one rung higher?7. Limitation that should appear beside the claim
Final check
Circle or note any word that asks the evidence to do more than it can: improved · caused · retained · applied · transformed · effective · lasting. Replace it with a more precise statement when necessary.
Rule: The goal is not to reach the top rung. The goal is to make the strongest useful claim the evidence supports.
Evidence boundary: This is an educational planning tool, not a validated evaluation instrument. Different research and evaluation designs require additional methodological decisions.